Revenue service says reforms have strengthened reserves, tax collection, oil output, investment and other key economic indicators.
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) says Nigeria’s economy has moved from severe macroeconomic difficulties towards a more stable and resilient position, citing improvements in debt management, revenue generation, foreign reserves, oil production and investment.
In an internal report, the agency attributed the development to economic reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu under the Renewed Hope Agenda, describing the measures as difficult but necessary.
According to the report, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and further to 32.3 per cent in 2026.
Although the country’s total debt stock has risen above ₦159 trillion, the NRS said economic growth had outpaced the increase in debt, resulting in a decline in the debt burden relative to the size of the economy.
The agency described the decline as the first sustained reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio in more than a decade. It also said debt servicing as a share of government revenue had fallen from 68 per cent to a projected 53 per cent, citing the International Monetary Fund.
The NRS identified four major economic distortions inherited by the President Tinubu administration: fuel subsidy, an opaque foreign exchange system, low oil production and weak tax collection.
The report said Nigeria’s external reserves had risen to $51.9 billion as of July 2026, a 17-year high, compared with $3.99 billion in 2023.
The country’s balance of payments also moved from a deficit of $3.34 billion to a surplus of $2.38 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Nigeria’s stock market recorded significant growth during the period, with market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange rising from ₦30.36 trillion in 2023 to ₦161 trillion in 2026.
The NRS linked the market rally to improved investor confidence, bank recapitalisation and increased participation by Nigerian institutions.
Tax revenue also more than doubled, rising from ₦12.3 trillion in 2023 to ₦27.1 trillion as of July 2026. The agency attributed the increase to the digitisation of tax collection, tax reforms, an overhaul of the revenue service and measures to close loopholes.
Oil production also improved from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing about 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
The report further said Nigeria had become a net exporter of petroleum products other than crude oil, attributing the development partly to the naira-for-crude arrangement involving the government, Dangote Refinery and other local refineries.
It added that exports of petroleum products other than crude oil rose by 51 per cent year-on-year to ₦6.78 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
The government’s push to expand compressed natural gas (CNG) adoption was also highlighted as part of efforts to reduce dependence on imported petrol and diesel.
Annual capital importation increased from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while $10.37 billion was recorded in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
On agriculture, the report cited measures including strategic grain releases, the creation of a ₦100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and agricultural mechanisation programmes.
Federal budget allocation to agriculture increased from ₦228.4 billion in 2023 to ₦826.5 billion in the 2025 budget.
The NRS also cited improvements in food prices, workers’ wages and education. It said food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing Ministry of Agriculture figures, while the national minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026.
The report further cited UNICEF estimates showing that the number of Nigerian children out of school had declined from 20 million to 18.3 million.
The NRS, however, acknowledged that some reforms, particularly in agriculture, would take time before their full impact could be reflected in increased production.
Overall, the agency said the figures indicated that Nigeria had moved beyond its most difficult economic period and was now on a firmer footing, while stressing the need for sustained implementation of the reforms.